Money

 

            It's hard not to notice, even ignoring the blaring newspaper headlines and screaming talking heads on TV, is that it is getting more expensive to live.  The recent run-up of oil prices has ramifications everywhere in society and even our quiet little corner of leisure activity is not immune to its effects.  Have you noticed the steady increase in price of new-tool kits?  Even older kits with molds that have long been amortized are showing signs of higher prices.  How about the price of supplies like glue and paint?  Even aftermarket decal sheets are reaching new levels of cost.  The price of gasoline affects our decisions to go hang out at the local hobby store, go to a model club meeting, or travel a distance to attend a model contest.  It's not just gas.  Food is more expensive as well and just keeping up with the quantity and quality of food we enjoy takes more money, which diminishes what disposable income we allocate for hobby-related purchases.  We're getting squeezed, and it can't be good for us or the industry that caters to our needs.

The new Hasegawa 1/72 bombers are a good case in point.  The recent issues of the Martin B-26, Consolidated B-24, and Avro Lancaster, all with suggested retail prices ranging from $45 to $80, are stunningly expensive when compared to other new 1/72 scale offerings of just a few years ago.  Has the market changed so drastically that even bread-and-butter kits in the most popular scale in the world now command a 200% premium over what we used to pay?  While very few people actually pay retail price, it does provide a common standard in which to compare models over the years.

While the raw material cost of the styrene in the box of a typical model kit doesn't amount to more than a few cents, the cost of transportation, packaging, manufacture, tooling, and importation makes up the significant cost components of a kit's retail price.  The industry rule of thumb is that each part in a kit cost $1000 in tooling for high-pressure injection molds.  A new kit involves quite a bit of risk for a manufacturer, as they have to determine what subject leads to a break even point as quickly as possible, thereby justifying their investment.  Using existing molds that have already been depreciated over their production runs, manufacturers can rest on their laurels a bit and instead choose to reissue kits with new markings and box art.  Even then, the question is whether modelers will have the funds to purchase these reissues.

Perhaps modelers will turn to their not insignificant stashes and start pulling from the piles to select their next project rather than look to new releases.  That may not be a bad thing, as we all know that our stashes are ridiculously large anyway and need to be worked down.  But we still get hit with the cost of supplies as we need new bottles of paint, glues, putties, and solvents, all of which are seeing corresponding increases in cost.  A $3 bottle of paint may not seem to be too bad, but add that up over the hundreds of bottles that a typical modeler has and it comes to a considerable sum.  Maybe we'll work down our paint stashes, too, substituting one shade of green paint for another slightly different one rather that going out and buying the more accurate color in order to save a buck or two.  Is there really that much difference between RAF Dark Green, US Tactical Air Force Dark Green, and Imperial Japanese Navy Dark Green?

I don't believe the sky is falling and the hobby is imminently going to die, but it certainly may etract if inflationary pressures raise prices above levels that modelers are comfortable paying.  Ten years ago I was delighted to get a 50% off coupon in a hobby store raffle and used it on a $100 Tamiya 1/32 scale F-4C Phantom kit.  That very same kit today commands a retail price of $140.  Even with a 50% off coupon today, I might not make that same decision to buy the kit, knowing that extra decals are needed and some resin updates are required to finish the model to the standards that I desire.

There are still tons of bargains out there.  Monogram kits remain affordable, particularly the excellent ones that were released in the mid 1990s.  Those kits like the Bf 110G, the F-84E, and the F-86D (Revell Germany pressings) are every bit competitive with those made in Japan.  Tamiya's line of 1/48 scale fighters is still very reasonably priced with gems like the F4U Corsair and F4F Wildcat kits.  Hasegawa's wonderful Ki 84 and venerable Bf 109 kits are pretty much the same price as they've always been and can provide hours of enjoyment.  I've always thought the greatest bargain in all of modeling are the 1/24 scale race car kits from Tamiya.  What you get in the box in regards to engineering, detail, and well-researched markings is truly remarkable.

Modelers can always find great deals in the used kit market.  Bargains are always available from vendors at model contests.  Raffles can be another source of model kits for very little investment.  If you don't mind getting a secondhand kit, the savings can be dramatic.  You can usually buy kits inexpensively from modeling friends and club members.

Lately I've been impressed with the rising quality of limited run kits from Eastern Europe.  While prices are typically in excess of $50, the kits usually include resin cockpit and wheel well components, high-quality decals, and interesting and slightly-off-the-beaten-track subject matter.  This makes them quite cost effective, though the modeler will frequently have to deal with construction that is more challenging than that from a mainstream manufacturer.  Instead of two $22 Tamiya P-51Ds in my closet, I might find that one $44 Eduard Bf 110C kit provides more overall enjoyment and sets me apart from others.

This assumes, of course, that one actually builds a kit.  Higher prices typically don't prevent modelers from building a kit, because we tend to build so little of our stashes anyway, but they give us pause from adding more kits to the pile.  For those modelers that like to go to the hobby store every Saturday morning and come back with a new kit, even though they only build a handful each year, then higher prices will certainly deny them that pleasure.  It will also deny the hobby store owner the revenue and make it even harder for them to survive in this uncertain economy.

Very few things in life diminish in price.  Older modelers remember 10 cent Cokes in glass bottles and 29 cent gallons of gasoline.  Those days are long gone.  I suspect the same will be true for models.  The price is never going to go down.  The fear is how much it will continue to rise in the coming years and how it will affect our buying habits and our participation in this hobby.